Mối đe dọa từ Houthi đẩy giá dầu tăng vọt

Red Sea Conflict Drives Brent Crude Above $91 Per Barrel Amid Supply Disruption Fears

July 21, 2026 - Escalating attacks by Houthi rebels are expanding the Middle East conflict into the Red Sea, forcing oil tankers to alter their routes and pushing Brent crude prices above $91 per barrel amid growing concerns about prolonged supply disruptions.



Red Sea Tensions Intensify

The military escalation between the United States and Iran last week focused on assets in the Persian Gulf, however, the involvement of Houthi rebels in the broader conflict risks causing additional supply disruptions in the Red Sea. With the first Asian-flagged tankers carrying Saudi crude now turning back to avoid Houthi drones and missiles, the dual risk from disrupted Middle East flows has pushed ICE Brent above $91 per barrel.



Saudi Arabia Redirects Crude Through Red Sea Amid Houthi Escalation

State-owned Saudi Aramco has shipped record volumes of crude oil from the Yanbu port on the Red Sea over the past four weeks. This could be a precursor to escalation in the Persian Gulf. Yemen's Houthi rebels have emailed most global shipping companies, warning against loading any cargo at Saudi Arabian ports and threatening attacks if vessels enter their operational area.



The East-West Pipeline - Saudi Arabia's Lifeline

After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has become dependent on the 7 million barrels per day (bpd) East-West pipeline to move production from eastern regions to oil markets. However, due to limitations at Yanbu - the endpoint of the East-West pipeline and a critical infrastructure bottleneck - only 4-4.5 million bpd are being transported. Additionally, 1.5-2 million bpd are being shipped to Aramco's refineries along the Red Sea coast.



According to Bloomberg, Saudi Aramco exceeded Yanbu's capacity by shipping an unprecedented 5.9 million bpd of crude oil in the week ending July 17, a 50% increase from the average from March to June.



Market Impacts

Increasingly, Asian tanker captains are facing headaches as daily bombings of vessels attempting to sneak through the Strait of Hormuz continue unabated. Houthi attacks are expanding the threat to Saudi Arabian ports, raising concerns about commercial flows in the Red Sea as all 4 million bpd of Saudi Aramco's exports now pass through Yanbu.



Saudi Crude Tankers Change Course

Two crude tankers, the Rodos and Xin Long Yang, carrying Saudi crude to India and China respectively, have turned back in the Red Sea after Yemen's Houthi rebels declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, highlighting the growing risks of oil shipment disruptions in the region.



Market Developments

Major Investors and Corporate Moves

  • Global trading giant Vitol is considering selling its US shale oil joint venture VT Energy Partners to a consortium of private equity partners Carnelian Energy and EnCap Investments for a total of $2.3 billion.
  • American oil giant Chevron NYSE:CVX has signed a Principles Agreement with the governments of Iraq and Syria to build a cross-border pipeline project that could evacuate Iraqi oil to the Mediterranean.
  • Norwegian offshore specialist Vaar Energi OSL:VAR, majority-owned by Italy's ENI, has agreed to merge its operations with regional peer BlueNord in a $1.33 billion deal, creating Europe's largest independent oil producer.
  • Japan's leading utility JERA, which supplies about 30% of the country's electricity, has initiated studies for a potential US listing as it seeks to expand overseas and diversify funding options.
  • US shale specialist Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp NYSE:MGY has agreed to acquire peer WildFire Energy for $4.1 billion, expanding its footprint on the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk shale plays in Texas, boosting production by 50% to 160,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Summary of Major Deals

CompanyDealValueImpact
VitolSale of VT Energy Partners$2.3 billionExiting US shale oil
ChevronIraq-Syria cross-border pipelineUndisclosedExpanding Middle East presence
Vaar EnergiMerger with BlueNord$1.33 billionCreating Europe's largest independent oil producer
Magnolia Oil & GasAcquisition of WildFire Energy$4.1 billionIncreasing production by 50%

Latest Developments - July 21, 2026

Mexico - Pemex Loses 10% of Oil Production?

State-owned Mexican oil company Pemex has denied claims that 137,000 bpd of crude oil has vanished from its balance sheet, citing ordinary inventory, logistics, and accounting adjustments, while reporting a 30% decrease in theft losses compared to the same period last year in Q1.



CPC Export Terminal Attacked by Tankers

  • The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has suspended oil loading at its Black Sea port after two tankers were attacked while loading, increasing risks to Kazakhstan's main export route handling about 80% of the country's shipments, equivalent to 1.6 million bpd of crude oil.

    • Ecopetrol Cyber Breach Triggers Risk Alert

  • Colombian state-owned oil company Ecopetrol NYSE:EC revealed that a cyberattack compromised data related to 3,300 accounts across 15 subsidiaries, warning that the incident could significantly impact the company's business operations even though crude oil production remains unaffected.

    • Iran Rushes Oil Exports Before Closure

  • Iran is believed to have moved 70 million barrels of crude oil to Asia during the brief US maritime blockade in June-July, earning $6 billion from transactions as tankers flocked to Malaysia before exports were tightened again.

    • EU Considers Easing Carbon Price Pressure

  • The European Union has proposed increasing free emission allowances under its carbon ETS trading mechanism, releasing about 80 million additional permits for industry through 2030, aiming to protect energy-intensive sectors from rising carbon costs.

    • India Sets E20 Limit

  • India stated it has no plans to increase ethanol blending in gasoline beyond 20% or introduce ethanol blending in diesel, reaffirming its current biofuel strategy after achieving the national E20 target ahead of schedule, replacing about 100,000 bpd of imported crude oil.

    • Panama Canal Limits Ship Access

  • The Panama Canal Authority will suspend 5% of its vessel booking system and reduce daily transits to 34 ships due to water levels at Lake Gatun, extending wait times and causing congestion at one of the world's most critical transport bottlenecks.

    • Kazakhstan NOC Breaks Rank on Kashagan Fine

  • Kazakh state oil company KazMunayGas intends to pay its share of a disputed $5 billion environmental penalty at the Kashagan oilfield, differing from major Western companies that continue to challenge the sulfur-related fine through international arbitration.

    • UK Scraps Electricity Bills, Changes Energy Team

  • UK's new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has removed VAT from household electricity bills and appointed Miatta Fanbulleh as energy minister, signaling a focus on living costs while energy companies expect him to define policy on North Sea oil and gas.

    • Copper Rises on China Shortage

  • Three-month LME standard contracts rose to a one-month high of $13,835 per ton amid narrowing inventories and strong physical demand from China, while remaining uncertainty about US tariffs provides additional support for the industrial metals market.

    • Egypt Accepts Risk for LNG Imports

  • Egyptian state gas company EGPC is reportedly negotiating with major energy corporations including Shell and TotalEnergies to purchase 15-18 LNG cargoes per month for the next 3 years only when the price has jumped to $20/MMBtu this week at the standard TTF benchmark.

    • Conclusion

    The escalating tensions in the Red Sea are creating significant challenges for the global oil market. With shipping routes disrupted, oil prices rising, and energy companies adjusting their strategies, this situation is likely to continue shaping the energy industry in the coming months. The development of Houthi attacks and the response of regional countries will be the determining factors for the severity of supply disruptions going forward.



    Tom Kool for Oilprice.com