Russia-Ukraine War Creates Ripples in Central Asian Energy Sector

Disruptions in Russia's energy sector due to its war with Ukraine are creating ripple effects throughout Central Asia, with fuel prices rising across the region and governments struggling to find alternative supplies to meet demand. Officials have sought to reassure consumers that supplies will be adequate and prices will decrease as global disruptions stabilize.

Overview: Rising Fuel Prices

Daniyar Amangeldiev, First Deputy Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, told reporters that fuel price increases were inevitable amid global geopolitical instability.

"There's a chance to avoid sudden price hikes, but rather gradual increases, 1 som every two weeks," Amangeldiev said. One Kyrgyz som is equivalent to more than one US cent.

"If prices fall on global exchanges, the Monopoly Companies Regulatory Authority will work with fuel import companies and try to reduce prices," he added.

Impact on Local Populations

For people in Central Asia, the surge in fuel prices has had immediate effects. Azat, a taxi driver in Bishkek, said fuel costs are eroding his daily income.

"Honestly, it's becoming very difficult," he said. "We can barely cover our daily expenses anymore."

"Gas for cars has risen to 45 som per liter. Previously, the same trip would cost about 1,200 som; now it costs 1,700 som," the taxi driver added.

"The city is constantly congested. Sometimes, we can't even cover our costs and end up in debt," he added.

Fuel Prices in Central Asian Countries

Kyrgyzstan Government's Response

Kyrgyzstani officials say the nation of 7.4 million people has avoided severe shortages seen in some areas within Russia itself.

Kanat Eshatov, Chairman of the Kyrgyzstan Fuel Traders Association, said supplies remain stable and the country has sufficient reserves to use.

"The situation is stable," he said. "Everything is being supplied. We have enough reserves for more than six weeks," Eshatov said.

"Oil product refineries have been attacked with drones, which is why some plants are temporarily not operating."

Tajikistan Under Heavy Pressure

Tajikistan, with a population of 11 million, may be the most vulnerable country in the region. According to the country's Competition Service, 84% of Tajikistan's petroleum product imports in 2025 came from Russia. Consumers have been affected as gasoline and diesel prices have risen, a situation exacerbated by supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf due to the Middle East war.

Abdujabbor, a taxi driver from Khujand, Tajikistan's second-largest city with 191,000 residents, told RFE/RL Tajik Service on June 25 that diesel prices had surged significantly.

"The previous diesel price was 9 somoni 60 dirams [about $1] per liter," he said. "Now they sell it for 13 somoni 50 dirams [$1.41]," Abdujabbor said. "This has had an impact because our incomes are decreasing. I don't know why diesel prices are increasing. At gas stations, they just tell us that diesel prices have increased everywhere, but no one explains what this is related to."

Tajikistani authorities have repeatedly blamed "external factors" for fuel price increases without specifying Russia as the cause.

This pressure has been compounded by domestic policy. The Tajikistan government has introduced a new environmental fee of 30 euros per ton on imported gasoline and diesel, adding to costs in an already strained market.

Uzbekistan's Moves

In Uzbekistan, a nation of 38 million people, the national airline recently announced it was canceling some flights to Russia due to a jet fuel shortage.

Otabek Bakirov, an Uzbekistani economist, linked the mounting domestic pressure to deepening reliance on Russian energy imports.

"We need to urgently focus on ensuring alternative and stable supplies of gasoline and other fuels like propane and diesel through neighboring and brotherly countries, and move to practical action on this issue," Bakirov said.

Comparison of Central Asian Countries' Responses

Seeking Alternative Sources

Economist Eldar Abakirov told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service that the crisis underscores the risks of relying on a single supplier.

"To address the issue of gasoline prices, the government needs to accept the risk and focus not just on one country," Abakirov warned. "We need to reach agreements with countries like Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Iran."

Another Kyrgyzstani economist, Erlan Kamalov, argued that the government should prepare for a long-term shift away from traditional fuel dependence.

"Since oil is a commodity traded on exchanges, its price depends on political and geopolitical factors," Kamalov said. "It's a finite, non-renewable resource. Therefore, its price will continue to rise year after year."

Kazakhstan: Potential Partner for Russia

Unlike Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan has so far avoided a major fuel shock. Thanks to domestic refineries and fuel reserves, gas stations have been able to operate normally even as Russia faces shortages.

However, Kazakhstan has also restricted petroleum product exports to protect its domestic market. The disruption has created an unusual situation - Russia, the primary fuel supplier to Central Asia, may now need help from Kazakhstan.

Reuters reported that Moscow has approached Astana about the possibility of supplying AI-92 gasoline to alleviate shortages caused by disruptions at Russian refineries. AI-92 is unleaded gasoline widely used in Russia and other former Soviet republics.

Speaking at a June 25 press conference at the Senate of Kazakhstan, Deputy Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin downplayed information about a fuel agreement with Russia, saying discussions were still in preliminary stages.

"No specific decision has been made yet. This is just a proposal," Amrin said. "When there is a specific decision, we will inform you."

Zhanel Kushukova, Deputy Minister of Trade and Integration of Kazakhstan, said the government's priority remains protecting the domestic market.

"Our main fuel supplier has always been the Russian Federation," Kushukova said. "This is understandable, as Russia is nearby and has certain resource capabilities."

However, she noted, "Given the current situation, we are making decisions within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Commission to reduce import tariffs to encourage fuel imports from third countries. First of all, this means China."

She added that export restrictions remain in place to meet domestic demand.

Suyindik Aldashev, Chairman of the Senate's Committee on Economic Policy, told Azattyq Asia, RFE/RL's Central Asian Russian-language service, that he had heard about Russia's request but emphasized that Kazakhstan would consider its own needs first.

"I've heard about the fuel supply proposal," Aldashev said. "But we will consider our own situation first."

"No one can force us to supply this or that country. Every country understands this. And it's not just about gasoline. It's also about diesel and kerosene," he said.

"Even aviation kerosene is currently in short supply for us. So no one is forcing us. First, we haven't discussed this issue. Second, we currently have no such plans," Aldashev added.

Kazakhstan's Dependence on Russian Infrastructure

However, Kazakhstan's vulnerability to Russia isn't just about fuel trade. The country's energy system remains tightly connected to Russian-controlled infrastructure, from pipelines and transportation routes to gas processing facilities.

Recent Ukrainian drone attacks around the Novorossiysk port and the disruption affecting regional export routes have highlighted the risks of relying on infrastructure beyond Kazakhstan's control.

Kazakh energy analyst Olzhas Baidildinov has warned that further attacks on Russia's Orenburg Gas Processing Plant could directly affect Kazakhstan.

"Our Karachaganak oil operating project supplies gas to Russia's Orenburg plant," Baidildinov explained. "The gas is processed there and then returned to Kazakhstan as commercial gas and liquefied gas."

According to Baidildinov, Kazakhstan produces about 30 billion cubic meters of commercial gas annually, of which about 9 billion cubic meters, nearly a third of the country's gas processing volume, passes through Orenburg.

"Previous disruptions at Orenburg have led to a 30% reduction in oil production at KPO, but the gas shortage was avoided thanks to supplies from Russia," Baidildinov said.

This time, Russia may be less able to come to the rescue. As Moscow struggles with its own fuel shortages and seeks supplies from Kazakhstan, Astana's dependence on Russian infrastructure could become an increasingly serious weakness.

And Kazakhstan may have to turn increasingly to another major neighbor - China - potentially replacing one dependence with another.

Shifting toward China could bring both opportunities and challenges for Kazakhstan. The growing economic relationship with China could help reduce dependence on Russia, but it also raises questions about the balance of power in the region and Kazakhstan's long-term energy independence.

In the context of ongoing geopolitical instability, diversifying energy sources and investing in domestic infrastructure may become strategic priorities for Central Asian countries to mitigate future risks.